Transportation sector and Chinese stock volatility forecasting: Evidence from freight and passenger traffic

Abstract

Based on the GARCH-MIDAS model, this paper explores the forecasting power of four transportation sub-sectors. The empirical results show that the freight volume and passenger traffic of air aviation outperform other models during MCS and DoC tests. This illustrates the important role of air aviation in the operation of a country's economy. The findings of this paper could help the government to formulate infrastructure planning and provide insights into the allocation of different resources to different transportation sectors.