Transportation programs under financial uncertainty: Identification of needs for future research

Abstract

To meet their short-term and long-term transportation goals, nationwide transportation agencies prepare infrastructure programs. Such programs, which consist of projects to be undertaken during the planning horizon, are developed in a highly complex and dynamic environment. Successful implementation of these programs is dependent on multiple uncertainties, with financial uncertainty being key among them. The literature has extensively discussed financial uncertainty at both the project and the program levels. However, financial uncertainty is generally addressed under the assumption of a single central funding source. These studies assume that there is no restriction on the use of money and on what projects are eligible for funds from a given funding category (source). However, multiple funding categories and project eligibility restrictions are prevalent across most transportation agencies. This study aims to address this gap by understanding the role of financial uncertainty when coupled with multiple funding categories and other project eligibility restrictions. The study is motivated by the practical needs of decision-makers at the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT). To better understand the needs of practitioners, the authors carried out an exploratory case study to identify the complexities involved in the transportation programming process. Additionally, this scenario analysis illustrates the potential implications of the current practices and procedures. The study's findings reveal a clear need to expand the current literature to account for multiple funding categories during transportation programming. The recommendations provided for future research can assist in enhancing the robustness of transportation programming models and augmenting the financial risk management literature.