Transportation Energy Consumption and Energy Security in China

Abstract

This chapter is aimed at analyzing the energy consumption of transportation industry in China and its relationship with national energy security from a macro and quantitative point of view. Based on analyses of historical transportation energy demand and relevant planning policies, regression models were established in order to estimate the demand and structure changes of transportation. Combined with the main factors affecting transportation energy consumption , an econometric model was established using the Partial Least Square Regression method to analysis and predict the transportation energy consumption scenarios as well as energy-saving rate in China in the middle and long-term. Study results confirm that China ’s transportation demand and its energy consumption will keep growing within a period of time, and transportation structure has changed a lot in the past two decades, with road and air transport currently the fastest developing transport modes. Future growth of transportation system’s energy consumption , especially petroleum consumption will pose a serious threat to energy security in China . Technique substitution, especially in road transport mode may significantly mitigate the energy gap.