Transport Sector Impacts of a Border between Ireland and Northern Ireland after a Hard Brexit

Khaoula Morchid,Margaret O’Mahony

doi:10.1155/2019/9029852

Abstract

More than half of British voters chose to leave the European Union (EU) leading to a series of negotiations between the United Kingdom and the EU. The withdrawal of the UK from the EU is widely referred to as Brexit. As the only country that shares a land border with the UK, the impact of Brexit on Ireland is expected to be greater than on any other European country. The objective of the research is to evaluate the potential impact of Brexit on the transport sector in Ireland at a micro level by focusing on cross‐border commuters and by also assessing the impact on road freight transport. Potential crossing scenarios are examined at six crossing locations. Assuming a hard border is implemented, each crossing is modelled in VISSIM, a microscopic traffic flow simulation software, using traffic data from Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) and dwell time estimated based on the US–Canada border crossings. Six scenarios are considered to determine the impact on cross‐border traffic at different flow conditions and with varying levels of technology used in border infrastructure leading to short versus long processing times. The paper evaluates travel measures including delays, queue lengths and emissions. The worst‐case scenario has a vehicle delay of 18.4 min and the highest delay‐associated costs across all locations modelled are estimated at €60.7 million per year. Estimated emissions generated at the border crossings raise concerns about environmental impacts of a hard Brexit. Interviews with stakeholders emphasized the critical role of technology in reducing the impact of a hard Brexit on cross‐border commuters and on the freight sector. A key finding is the importance of using technology tools to facilitate controls and reduce processing times. The results indicate that technology use leads to significant time and cost savings as well as reduced environmental impacts.

Highlights

For the purposes of this research, a hard Brexit is de ned as the UK giving up full access to the European single market and full access to the customs union meaning that the UK would fall back on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules for trade with countries in the European Union (EU)
To put perspective on the ndings, a number of stakeholders were interviewed as part of the research. ey included representatives from large banks, EU country ambassadors, the Irish Exporters Association, former European Commission sta, freight associations and representatives from Irish government departments
Exact data on Irish freight going through the UK to mainland Europe are not available; so the Irish Maritime Development O ce (IRMO) was requested by DTTAS to prepare a report on volumes of tra c using the UK land bridge and have it completed by October 2018

Summary

Introduction

Over half of British voters chose to leave the EU by March 2019 and the UK government has been negotiating a deal with the EU regarding the details of the exit but a nal agreement has yet to be reached. e EU regulates the movement of goods and services across the border while the Common Travel Area treaty, signed before Ireland and the UK joined the EU, regulates the movement of British and Irish citizens. e uncertainty regarding the nature of the border a er Brexit arises from varying views about the movement of non-EU nationals and freight movement. e transport sector a ects the movement of both people and goods and it is important to understand how Brexit will impact on it. e aim of this research project is to evaluate this impact with a focus on freight and car transport across the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Agricultural products and sheries are excluded from the EEA agreement so imports in this category are controlled and made subject to tari s and quotas while other goods require minimum compliance checks as certi cation procedures and standards are consistent with those of the EU [16] Given that both Norway and Sweden are part of the Schengen Agreement, there is limited passport control for people moving across the border that spans 1600 kilometers and over 80 crossings. RFID readers are available at 39 crossing points accounting for 95% of all trade, which expedites the crossing process based on agreed compliance measures and preapprovals Another example that might be considered for the Irish border in the case of a hard Brexit is the Free And Secure Trade Program (FAST) between the US and Canada which allows low risk commercial goods to be cleared faster. 4: Locations of existing crossing points on national routes and the tra c ow in AADT at each [21]

Methods

Findings

Discussion