Abstract
The paper describes work done by the Mathematical Advisory Unit of the Ministry of Transport to derive the net transport value of a Barrage across Morecambe Bay, as a contribution to the assessment of non-water benefits made by an Economic Study Group under the aegis of the Department of Economic Affairs' North West Regional Office. The basic method was to establish a traffic model which could represent traffic movements on the road network of north Lancashire, Westmorland and west Cumberland, to use this model to predict the traffic consequences of a road-bearing Barrage (and a number of other projects in combination), and to estimate the economic benefits accruing from these different alternative networks.
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