Transport demand, harmful emissions, environment and health co-benefits in China

Abstract

The Chinese residents' travel demand has been increasing dramatically. As a result, emissions from motor vehicles have been found as one main source of air pollution in China, which consequently influences the residents' health. To better understand the environmental deterioration and health losses caused by the transport sector in China, in current circumstances, one must know how the changes in residents' travel demand and alternative transport modes affect environment and health co-benefits in China. We first of all calculate the demand from nearly all the residents' travel means, including road, rail, water, and air transport. Besides, based on the results, this paper further makes projections for a business-as-usual scenario for 2050 with several alternative transport scenarios to reduce harmful emissions and improve the welfare of the residents' health in China. Our integrated framework includes the harmful emissions models, the fixed box model and the exposure-response models, to link transport demand with possible environmental and health outcomes. The findings suggest that significant environment and health co-benefits are possible if alternative transport replaces. This research, to the best of our knowledge, is the first attempt to estimate the total resident's travel demand under different scenarios and the consequent environment and health co-benefits in the transitional China.