Transplantation in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Observational Multivariate Analysis of Survival and Recurrence Factors in 414 Patients

Abstract

We sought to identify the risk factors involved in survival of and tumor recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing liver transplant (LTx). We conducted a retrospective observational study and analyzed the medical records of 414 patients with HCC undergoing deceased donor LTx in São Paulo between January 2007 and December 2011. Multifactorial analysis of survival and recurrence was performed using clinical, laboratory, and pathology data. The mortality rate was 27.5%; mean survival time was 68.1 months (95% confidence interval, 64.7-71.6); and estimated 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival probabilities were 83.8%, 75.8%, and 71.5%, respectively. Altered donor blood glucose, female sex, vascular invasion, advanced age, high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, and tumor size were the main risk factors determining survival in LTx recipients. Recurrence was noted in 7.2% of patients during the study period and was more frequent in women (hazard ratio, 2.6). Vascular invasion increased the chance of recurrence by 5.4 times. Each additional 1-year increase in recipient age increased the chance of recurrence by 5.6%, and each 1-mm increase in tumor size increased the chance of recurrence by 3%. Risk factors for reduced survival are donor blood glucose, female recipient, older age, increased Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and nodule size. Tumor recurrence risk factors are vascular invasion, female sex, recipient age, and nodule size.