Transparency and the Effectiveness of Multilateral Nonproliferation Export Control Regimes: Can Wassenaar Work?

Abstract

In March 1994 the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (COCOM), which for 45 years controlled weapons and weapons-related trade with the Soviet region, ceased to exist. In December 1995 thirty-three countries (including all the former COCOM members and many of its former targets) created COCOM's successor, the Wassenaar Arrangement on Export Controls for Conventional Arms and Dual-Use Goods and Technologies. This new multilateral export control mechanism promised to enhance the control of strategic trade through “openness…[and] information sharing about arms and technology transfers.” This study examines the impact of such openness or transparency on the ability of states to control effectively the export of sensitive goods and technologies. Employing a unique and original method for measuring national export control systems, the study finds that transparency may in fact negatively affect a state's capacity to prevent the proliferation of sensitive items. Based on these preliminary findings, the study suggests that the Wassenaar Arrangement's prospects for nonproliferation success, given its emphasis on transparency, may be grim.