Abstract
To determine transmission potential of influenza A(H7N9) virus, we used symptom onset data to compare 2 waves of infection in China during 2013–2014. We found evidence of increased transmission potential in the second wave and showed that live bird market closure was significantly less effective in Guangdong than in other regions.
Highlights
To determine transmission potential of influenza A(H7N9) virus, we used symptom onset data to compare 2 waves of infection in China during 2013–2014
Analysis of the largest clusters of subtype H7N9 virus infection in 2013 suggested that the basic reproduction number (R0, the average number of secondary cases generated by a typical infectious host in a fully susceptible population) was higher in some clusters than in others [8,9], the absence of sustained transmission implied that R0 was less than the critical value of 1
We assumed that cases could be generated in 1 of 2 ways: on each day, the expected number of reported cases was equal to the sum of animal exposure and secondary cases generated by earlier infectious hosts
Summary
To determine transmission potential of influenza A(H7N9) virus, we used symptom onset data to compare 2 waves of infection in China during 2013–2014. From February 19, 2013, through April 22, 2014, a total of 429 cases of influenza A(H7N9) virus infection in humans in China were reported and occurred in 2 outbreak waves. To determine the transmission potential of influenza A(H7N9) virus in the first and second waves in 2013, we compared symptom onset data. To infer market hazard and human-to-human transmission potential, we used a statistical model of infection spillover [9].
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