Abstract
BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people. In this study, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trend and estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies in the mainland of China.MethodsAccording to the COVID-19 epidemic status, we constructed a compartmental model. Based on reported data from the National Health Commission of People’s Republic of China during January 10–February 17, 2020, we estimated the model parameters. We then predicted the epidemic trend and transmission risk of COVID-19. Using a sensitivity analysis method, we estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies.ResultsThe cumulative number of confirmed cases in the mainland of China will be 86 763 (95% CI: 86 067–87 460) on May 2, 2020. Up until March 15, 2020, the case fatality rate increased to 6.42% (95% CI: 6.16–6.68%). On February 23, 2020, the existing confirmed cases reached its peak, with 60 890 cases (95% CI: 60 350–61 431). On January 23, 2020, the effective reproduction number was 2.620 (95% CI: 2.567–2.676) and had dropped below 1.0 since February 5, 2020. Due to governmental intervention, the total number of confirmed cases was reduced by 99.85% on May 2, 2020. Had the isolation been relaxed from February 24, 2020, there might have been a second peak of infection. However, relaxing the isolation after March 16, 2020 greatly reduced the number of existing confirmed cases and deaths. The total number of confirmed cases and deaths would increase by 8.72 and 9.44%, respectively, due to a 1-day delayed diagnosis in non-isolated infected patients. Moreover, if the coverage of close contact tracing was increased to 100%, the cumulative number of confirmed cases would be decreased by 88.26% on May 2, 2020.ConclusionsThe quarantine measures adopted by the Chinese government since January 23, 2020 were necessary and effective. Postponing the relaxation of isolation, early diagnosis, patient isolation, broad close-contact tracing, and strict monitoring of infected persons could effectively control the COVID-19 epidemic. April 1, 2020 would be a reasonable date to lift quarantine in Hubei and Wuhan.
Highlights
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people
This study aims to accurately predict COVID-19 prevalence in the mainland of China and to evaluate the impact of isolation intensity, delayed diagnosis, the external input of free infected persons, and the increased coverage of close-contact tracing on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission trend and case fatality rate
COVID-19 epidemic trend in the mainland of China The final cumulative number of confirmed cases in the mainland of China would reach 86 763 on May 2, 2020 (Fig. 2a)
Summary
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has seriously endangered the health and lives of Chinese people. We predicted the COVID-19 epidemic trend and estimated the efficacy of several intervention strategies in the mainland of China. In December 2019, a cluster of cases of pneumonia caused by 2019-nCoV (later named as severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2, SARS-CoV-2) was reported in Wuhan, China [1]. The outbreak of COVID-19 had seriously endangered the lives and health of the Chinese people and brought heavy economic burden to the country. The accurate prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic trend, as well as an accurate estimation of the efficacy of prevention and control strategies, are major health challenges that need to be addressed immediately
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