Abstract
HVDC innovations and the integration of power markets and renewables drive the development of a European Northern Seas offshore grid. This power transmission system performs two functions: interconnecting Northern European onshore power systems, and connecting offshore wind farms. Despite its benefits, the development of an integrated offshore grid combining the two functions is slow. The main reasons are the lack of cooperation and governance frameworks to overcome regional differences and distribute costs and benefits. These barriers were studied so far only qualitatively or through perfect foresight optimization models. We complement this by studying transmission expansion pathways of the grid, which are non-optimal and path dependent, using a novel and open-source simulation model for offshore transmission investments. Different expansion typologies are considered, which we find perform the grid functions with different levels of integration and transmission capacities. Besides these typology factors, modelling and simulation factors also affect the expansion selection. Typology, modelling and simulation factors interact to result in radically different offshore grid pathways, which exhibit strong path dependence. Thus, to avoid locking-out beneficial expansions for the Northern Seas offshore grid, planning should be regional and consider HVDC innovations. Then individual projects can be implemented based on their own merits.
Highlights
Our aim is to study the Northern Seas offshore grid, in order to understand which factors affect its expansion and make recommendations for expansion planning governance in Europe
In the introduction we present the Abbreviations: AC/DC, alternating-current/direct-current; BI, British Isles; continental Europe (CE), Continental Europe; IC, interconnector; HVAC, high-voltage alternating-current; HVDC, high-voltage direct-current; NPVa, absolute net present value; NPVr, net present value ratio; PV, photovoltaic; SC, Scandinavia; Transmission expansion planning (TEP), transmission expansion planning
Our aim was to explore transmission expansion pathways for the offshore grid and the factors which affect them under path dependence, to which we used a simulation model with myopic optimization
Summary
Our aim is to study the Northern Seas offshore grid, in order to understand which factors affect its expansion and make recommendations for expansion planning governance in Europe. We develop a transmission investment simulation model using myopic optimization, while previously quantitative studies on the offshore grid have applied mainly perfect foresight optimization. Our simulation approach demonstrates the strong influence of path dependence on the grid expansion, a factor which previous studies did not address. In the introduction we present the Abbreviations: AC/DC, alternating-current/direct-current; BI, British Isles; CE, Continental Europe; IC, interconnector; HVAC, high-voltage alternating-current; HVDC, high-voltage direct-current; NPVa, absolute net present value; NPVr, net present value ratio; PV, photovoltaic; SC, Scandinavia; TEP, transmission expansion planning. Offshore grid, its relation to the European power system and policies, and the current state of research, governance initiatives and development projects on the grid.
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