Transmission effects of oil prices, Ruble, and Euro in the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war: evidence from the VAR-DCC-GARCH approach

Abstract

Using the VAR-DCC-GARCH model, the paper studies the dynamic correlation between Ruble closing price and WTI's oil price, and between Euro and WTI's oil price during the Russo-Ukrainian war. The results show that before the Russia Ukraine war, there was a strong correlation between the Ruble and WTI oil prices, and between the Euro and WTI oil prices. Their connection deteriorates sharply and became negative during the Russia Ukraine conflict. We speculate that European stock market investors will flee risky assets and turn to safe haven assets, and China may use Euros in oil trade settlement in the future.