Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis with Age-specific Disease Progression.

Abstract

Demographic structure and latent phenomenon are two essential factors determining the rate of tuberculosis transmission. However, only a few mathematical models considered age structure coupling with disease stages of infectious individuals. This paper develops a system of delay partial differential equations to model tuberculosis transmission in a heterogeneous population. The system considers demographic structure coupling with the continuous development of disease stage, which is crucial for studying how aging affects tuberculosis dynamics and disease progression. Here, we determine the basic reproduction number, and several numerical simulations are used to investigate the influence of various progression rates on tuberculosis dynamics. Our results support that the aging effect on the disease progression rate contributes to tuberculosis permanence.