Abstract
COVID-19 is reported to have been brought under control in China. To understand the COVID-19 outbreak in China and provide potential lessons for other parts of the world, in this study we apply a mathematical model with multiple datasets to estimate the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the severity of the illness associated with the infection, and how both were affected by unprecedented control measures. Our analyses show that before 19th January 2020, 3.5% (95% CI 1.7–8.3%) of infected people were detected; this percentage increased to 36.6% (95% CI 26.1–55.4%) thereafter. The basic reproduction number (R0) was 2.33 (95% CI 1.96–3.69) before 8th February 2020; then the effective reproduction number dropped to 0.04(95% CI 0.01–0.10). This estimation also indicates that control measures taken since 23rd January 2020 affected the transmissibility about 2 weeks after they were introduced. The confirmed case fatality rate is estimated at 9.6% (95% CI 8.1–11.4%) before 15 February 2020, and then it reduced to 0.7% (95% CI 0.4–1.0%). This shows that SARS-CoV-2 virus is highly transmissible but may be less severe than SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV. We found that at the early stage, the majority of R0 comes from undetected infectious people. This implies that successful control in China was achieved through reducing the contact rates among people in the general population and increasing the rate of detection and quarantine of the infectious cases.
Highlights
COVID-19 is reported to have been brought under control in China
An alert was issued by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission and a rapid response team was sent to Wuhan by Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) The World Health Organisation (WHO) China Country Office was informed of 27 cases of pneumonia of unknown aetiology detected in Wuhan city, Hubei Province of China
Understanding the transmissibility and severity of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is paramount; understanding how its rapid spread was brought under control in mainland China is of practical importance for other countries facing ongoing outbreaks of COVID-19
Summary
COVID-19 is reported to have been brought under control in China. To understand the COVID-19 outbreak in China and provide potential lessons for other parts of the world, in this study we apply a mathematical model with multiple datasets to estimate the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the severity of the illness associated with the infection, and how both were affected by unprecedented control measures. The comparatively small increase in the numbers of cases and deaths in mainland China can be attributed to draconian and rapid control measures implemented since late January 2020, starting from the lockdown of the epicentre Wuhan city on 23rd January 2020 and extending to all of mainland C hina3 These included the complete shutdown and isolation of whole cities, cancellation of Chinese New Year celebrations, and prohibition of school and work attendance, frequent multi-media broadcasts of critical information (e.g., promoting hand washing, mask wearing, and care seeking), massive mobilization of health and public health personnel and military medical units, rapid construction of hospitals for patients with severe symptoms, and reconstruction of shelters for patients with no or mild symptoms. A total of 44 patients with pneumonia of unknown aetiology have been reported to World Health Organisation (WHO) by Chinese authorities Chinese National Health Commission (CNHC) issued the Diagnosis and Treatment plan for pneumonia of unknown aetiology
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