Abstract
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains an emerging disease threat with regular human cases on the Arabian Peninsula driven by recurring camels to human transmission events. In this paper, we present a new deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of (MERS-CoV). In order to do this, we develop a model formulation and analyze the stability of the proposed model. The stability conditions are obtained in term of R0, we find those conditions for which the model become stable. We discuss basic reproductive number R0 along with sensitivity analysis to show the impact of every epidemic parameter. We show that the proposed model exhibits the phenomena of backward bifurcation. Finally, we show the numerical simulation of our proposed model for supporting our analytical work. The aim of this work is to show via mathematical model the transmission of MERS-CoV between humans and camels, which are suspected to be the primary source of infection.
Highlights
A new coronavirus was identified in Saudi Arabia in September 2012 known as Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) [5, 11]
Since April 2012 till date, there have been a total of 536 cases with 145 deaths, a case fatality rate of 27 percent with the majority being reported in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Qatar) [2]
We prove the local stability of model (1) at endemic equilibria (EE)
Summary
A new coronavirus was identified in Saudi Arabia in September 2012 known as Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) [5, 11]. Since its emergence in 2012, the Middle East respiratory coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has caused spill over from the dromedary camel population into the human population. This virus spread from an infected person’s respiratory secretion such as through coughing. Equilibria and basic reproductive number of model (1) are presented in Sections of 4.1 and 4.2. We develop a compartmental epidemic model of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). According to biological characteristics of the MERS-CoV, we divide the total population into human and camel populations. Let Nc(t) represents the total camels population at time t, Nc(t) = Sc(t) + Xc(t) + Yc(t), dNc dt This means that there exists lim supt→∞ bc/k1. First, we find equilibria and the threshold quantity R0
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