Transmission Characteristics and Predictive Model for Recent Epidemic Waves of COVID-19 Associated With OMICRON Variant in Major Cities in China.

Abstract

Objectives: Waves of epidemics associated with Omicron variant of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in major cities in China this year have been controlled. It is of great importance to study the transmission characteristics of these cases to support further interventions. Methods: We simulate the transmission trajectory and analyze the intervention influences of waves associated with Omicron variant in major cities in China using the Suspected-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model. In addition, we propose a model using a function between the maximum daily infections and the duration of the epidemic, calibrated with data from Chinese cities. Results: An infection period of 5days and basic reproduction number R0 between 2 and 8.72 are most appropriate for most cases in China. Control measures show a significant impact on reducing R0, and the earlier control measures are implemented, the shorter the epidemic will last. Our proposed model performs well in predicting the duration of the epidemic with an average error of 2.49days. Conclusion: Our results show great potential in epidemic model simulation and predicting the end date of the Omicron epidemic effectively and efficiently.