Transitions, Interrupted Routes toward Democracy in Latin America

Abstract

This essay contributes to existing literature on regime transitions by offering a systematic analysis of structural pathways toward democracy in Latin America. Through a statistical exploration of nineteen countries from 1978 through 2008, the study identifies recurrent routes of political change, stopping points, and regime reversals. Aggregate patterns are then applied to individual countries. Results show that most Latin American nations have made successful ex its from authoritarianism, but without moving all the way to full democracy; that illiberal democracy has become the modal form of political organization throughout the region; that illiberal democracy has formed a crucial stepping stone in progressions toward liberal democracy; and that the eventual form of routes toward democracy depends very largely on two factors-first, prior national experience with pluralistic politics, and second, the relative size and capacity for mobilization of marginal sectors in society.