Transitioning Toward a Zero-Emission Electricity Sector in a Net-Zero Pathway for Africa Delivers Contrasting Energy, Economic and Sustainability Synergies Across the Region.

Abstract

Although Africa contributes less than 5% to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, its role in global climate action is pivotal. To date, 53 African countries have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and four have committed to a net-zero target. However, many of Africa's NDCs are vaguely expressed and without specific focus on explicit sectoral decarbonization targets. Furthermore, Africa's huge land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential remains unclear in the context of enabling net-zero (NZ) emissions within the continent. This study achieves two objectives: Under a NZ GHG emission trajectory in Africa, we uncover the implications of a targeted zero-emission electricity sector by 2030, on the energy landscape and other sustainability factors. This study also features the role of land-based biological removal methods─bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation/reforestation (A/R)─in net zero actualization in Africa. Our results reveal a unified but disparate actualisation of the mid-century net zero emission goal across the continent, as all regions except North Africa achieve carbon neutrality. The industrial sector faces significant difficulties in transitioning and contributes substantially to positive emissions on the continent, with its share of total residual emissions reaching 49-64% by 2050. This difficulty persists even with targeted sectoral decarbonization of the electricity sector, although it is significantly reduced by the availability of BECCS as a CDR option. Under the zero-emission electricity pathway, emissions in buildings and transport sectors are reduced due to rapid electrification. A trade-off emerges in the net zero pathway concerning land allocation for negative emissions versus other land use activities. A key result shows that achieving a net zero target in Africa leads to a cumulative loss of $102 billion in fossil fuel infrastructure within the electricity sector by mid-century, which doubles when the zero-emission electricity goal is achieved.