Transition to the bioeconomy – Analysis and scenarios for selected niches

Abstract

Bio-based innovations do not evolve independently from each other, but are interrelated and may enjoy synergies, but also compete for resources (i.e. biomass, skills). Therefore, we explore possible transition pathways that distinct bio-based niches could follow during a joint transformation process. We apply the Multi-Level-Perspective’s transition pathways to the four distinct niches of (i) bioplastics, (ii) biolubricants and of biofuels for (iii) road and (iv) aviation. A subsequent scenario exercise that combines possible transitions paths of these niches enables us to explore the special relation between the individual niches and to detect possible synergies or conflicts. The scenarios show that diverse developments between bio-based niches in terms of scale and type of transition in the future are highly plausible. Finally, based on the results we derive conclusions about appropriate governance arrangements for the bioeconomy.