Abstract
Strong and high-dose opioids are associated with opioid overdose and death. The objective of this study was to determine the rate and predictors of transitioning to high-dose or strong opioids among people initiating opioids. Retrospective cohort study. Australia. People initiating opioid analgesics from July 2013 to January 2018 were identified from a random 10% sample of Australia's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme eligible population. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for the predictors of escalating to ≥50mg oral morphine equivalents (OMEs)/day (cohort 1); ≥90mg OMEs/day (cohort 2) and transitioning from weak opioids to strong opioids (cohort 3) over 12months of follow-up. Predictors included age, sex, number of comorbidities, history of depression, prior treatment for cancer and selected other medication use. In total, 861 691 people initiated opioids at average doses <50mg OMEs/day (cohort 1), 874 401 at <90mg OMEs/day (cohort 2) and 603 884 initiated weak opioids (cohort 3). Overall, 1.4% of people escalated to doses ≥50mg OMEs/day, 0.8% to doses ≥90mg OMEs/day and 7.3% transitioned to strong opioids. The strongest predictors of transitioning included prior treatment for cancer [cohort 1: HR=3.19, 95% CI=3.00-3.40; cohort 2: HR=4.19, 95% CI=3.90-4.51; cohort 3: HR=2.07, 95% CI=1.95-2.18] and age≥75years (cohort 1: HR=3.04, 95% CI=2.73-3.38; cohort 2: HR=2.51, 95% CI=2.17-2.89; cohort 3: HR=1.88, 95% CI=1.80-1.96). Females transitioned to high doses and strong opioids less rapidly than males (cohort 1: HR=0.79, 95% CI=0.76-0.82; cohort 2: HR=0.70, 95% CI=0.66-0.73; cohort 3: HR=0.95, 95% CI=0.93-0.96). In Australia, more than one in every 13 people initiating weak opioids transition to strong opioids. By extrapolation, more than 26 000 Australian adults initiating opioids escalate to high doses each year. People with cancer treatment history, older people and males transition to strong and high-dose opioids more rapidly than others.
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