Transition to cellular agriculture reduces agriculture land use and greenhouse gas emissions but increases demand for critical materials

Abstract

Cellular agriculture, that is, the production of cultured meat and microbial proteins, has been developed to provide food security for a growing world population. The use of green energy technologies is recommended to ensure the sustainability of changing traditional agriculture to a cellular one. Here, we use a global dynamic model and life-cycle assessment to analyze scenarios of replacing traditional livestock products with cellular agriculture from 2020 to 2050. Our findings indicate that a transition to cellular agriculture by 2050 could reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by 52%, compared to current agriculture emissions, reduce demand for phosphorus by 53%, and use 83% less land than traditional agriculture. A maximum 72% replacement of livestock products with cellular agriculture using renewable energy is possible based on the 2050 regional green energy capacities. A complete transition can be achieved but requires 33% of the global green energy capacities in 2050. Further, the accelerated demand for critical materials will not exceed their primary production capacities, except for tellurium. We conclude that a transition to cellular agriculture is possible with environmental benefits and provide a benchmark to study different alternatives to animal-based diets.