Transition pathways for smart mixed cropping systems : PPS Agros

Abstract

Current arable farming systems produce high yields of good quality, but also face a number of sustainability challenges that jeopardise the resilience of this system. Therefore, robust and resilient novel systems are explored to combat these challenges. Smart mixed cropping systems are one of such systems that is explored within the Public Private Partnership AGROS. Smart mixed cropping systems are systems that use biological and ecological processes as a starting point to create a climate resilient system by growing two or more crops simultaneously on the same field for at least part of their cycle. Complementary smart technology such as sensing systems can then be used to monitor biological processes and help understand biological processes and associated ecosystem functions on the field. This report describes three possible pathways for the development of smart mixed cropping systems. These pathways lead from the current agricultural system towards a future scenario. Using this scenario methodology, we explored what the future of smart mixed cropping systems could plausibly look like in 2040. The goal of creating such explorations is to broaden views and increase reflexivity for example in policy making and strategic decision making (e.g. Verbong and Geels, 2010). We organised two interactive workshops: a scenario workshop and a strategy workshop. The scenario workshop resulted in three diverging future scenarios of smart mixed cropping systems, while the strategy workshop resulted in timelines of transition pathways towards these future scenarios. During the strategy workshop, the transition pathways were translated into action perspective for different stakeholder groups. The first scenario was titled ‘Data for your convenience: chain based transformation’. The main characteristics of this scenario are: big tech in the lead, widespread adoption of robotisation and automation, hedonistic consumer demands, diversified rotations, individual plant treatment in pixel cropping, and a highly technical system. The second scenario was titled ‘Ecology at the wheel: Ecology based transformation’. The main characteristics of this scenario are: ecology in the lead, long-term policy visions for agriculture, regionalisation of agri-food systems, digitalisation in short value chains, mixed cropping as a broader approach of resilient and sustainable cropping systems, and an important role for protein crops. The third scenario was titled ‘Crisis forces action: Climate based adaption. The main characteristics of this scenario are: climate crisis management, top-down centralisation, true pricing in the value chain, mixed cropping as a way to deal with weather extremes, combining annual with perennial crops, and fresh water as the new gold. Starting from the future vision, we describe transition pathways that outline how we got from the current situation to the future vision. For each pathway, milestones for 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040 are described that need to be reached in order to realise the described scenario. By identifying ‘breakthrough’ moments that create a crucial leap in development from the current system towards the future scenario, we made a first exploration of implications for practice. These breakthrough moments can be translated into action perspectives for different stakeholder groups such as researchers, farmer representatives, policy makers or engineers. An example of such an exploration was provided by exploring implications of the pathways for energy infrastructure.