Transition in Afghanistan

Abstract

Abstract: NATO has made progress constructing the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), which have assumed the lead for most combat operations, resulting in declining NATO casualties. The ANSF's ability to suppress the Taliban insurgency, however, depends on NATO's training and equipping it sufficiently to replace the military intelligence, aviation support, logistics, and other enablers NATO now provides. The Afghan government also needs to improve its performance. Further progress is likely, but a renewal of the civil war that devastated Afghanistan in the 1990s remains a fearful possibility. ********** In June 2013, the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) assumed the lead combat role throughout Afghanistan against the tenacious Taliban insurgency. US combat forces in Afghanistan are scheduled to decrease to 32,000 by the end of the year. (1) After next year, the United States intends to have a smaller Enduring Presence force operating under NATO command and a separate focused counterterrorism mission. If the ANSF performs well in the next year with a declining US military presence, we could see a successful NATO-ANSF transfer. The risk remains uncomfortably high, however, that the Afghan government will eventually succumb to an onslaught of the intensely ideologically motivated Taliban fighters linked to al Qaeda Islamist extremists. Both groups enjoy sanctuary and support in neighboring countries. Still, the most likely scenario is renewed civil war among multiple armed factions such as Afghanistan experienced during the 1990s. Even a flawless ANSF-NATO handoff would not guarantee a benign end to the conflict. Many political, economic, diplomatic, and myriad other variables could affect the war's outcome. In his 2012 speech at Bagram Air Base, US President Barack Obama identified five lines of American effort regarding Afghanistan in coming years. In addition to strengthening the ANSF, these efforts included building a strong Afghan-American partnership; supporting an Afghan-led peace process; enhancing cooperation between Afghanistan and its region; and successfully implementing the 2014 security, economic, and political transition. The latter goal includes transitioning to an ANSF-led war, a private sector-led economy, and successfully holding free and fair elections next year. The Pentagon will have only a modest influence over many of these factors, as is often the case with recent civil conflicts involving the United States. The prospects for a peace agreement between the Afghan government and the Taliban have experienced several ups and downs. However, few expect a meaningful peace deal before most NATO combat troops leave Afghanistan. In their 31 May White House news conference, President Obama and visiting NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen did not even mention the possibility of a negotiated settlement to the war. Instead, they announced plans to hold a NATO summit in 2014 that would finalize details for Operation Resolute Support, the alliance's new post-2014 train, advise, and assist mission in Afghanistan. (2) Even so, perhaps the most serious problem preventing a peace agreement is the belief among Taliban leaders that, following the withdrawal of NATO, the ANSF will succumb to their more highly motivated fighters. The Challenging Transition to Afghan Lead Despite a decade of intense work and sacrifice, the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan has yet to secure its main objectives of empowering a legitimate post-Taliban government sufficiently to ensure security throughout the country and prevent Afghanistan from again becoming a terrorist safe haven. (3) The double military surge in Afghanistan--which saw two waves of tens of thousands of additional US and NATO troops enter the country following Obama's inauguration in 2009--helped blunt the Taliban resurgence and restore Afghan government control of the country's population centers, especially in the south. …