Transition from fossilized to defossilized energy system in Pakistan

Abstract

Pakistan's energy sector has been in crises since 2005. Major reasons behind crises include huge dependence on imported fossil assets and lack of integrated energy planning. These crises have challenged energy sector and require special attention to solve them through proper planning using energy modeling tools. In this research, Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is used for modeling Pakistan's energy sector for period 2020 to 2070. Energy demand, production and CO2 emissions are forecasted under the Progressive (PROG) and Renewable Energy Sources, Technologies and Efficiency Measures (RESTEM) scenarios by considering techno-economic parameters. Results of this study suggest that transition towards defossilized energy system is possible through RESTEM scenario. Model results shows that energy demand for 2020 is 112 TWh and for 2070 is 2684 TWh. On supply side, energy production for 2020 is 114 TWh and for 2070 it is 2696 TWh. Share of renewable sources in total energy mix is increased from 38.5% in 2021 to 59.1% in 2070 and share of non-renewable sources is reduced from 53.1% in 2021 to 40.9% in 2070. CO2 emissions are also reduced from 153,083.7 million tons to 56,152 million tons under RESTEM scenario.