Transition démographique brésilienne et le rôle stratégique de la jeunesse

Abstract

Although later than other countries, Brazil is experiencing a demographic transition. While urbanization reaches its apex in the country, with 84.3% of its population living in urban areas, ongoing demographic changes are reflected in both birth rates and the age pyramid. Studies show that Brazil is enjoying a demographic “bonus”, i.e., the proportion of working age population has grown at higher rates than the decrease in dependency rates, thus creating a favorable scenario for economic development that should last until 2050. However, in recent years, a significant drop in total fertility rates was observed. It is now at 1.8 children per woman, hence below replacement level, although this average bears notable regional disparities. In this paper, we examine demographic transition in Brazil, based on the case of Rio Grande do Sul, the Brazilian state that undergoes a faster change in age structure, exhibiting the country’s lowest fertility rate – 1.6 children per woman – and the highest proportion of elderly, 9.3%. The approach based on youth is justified for the strategic role they play in the development process, since they will be responsible, in the future, for sustaining this aged population. Recent evaluations of social mobility in Brazil revealed that it has impacted chiefly the rural areas, and also that young people have been its main beneficiaries, since their families have more resources for investing in their education and qualification. The paper is organized into four sections, besides introduction and final remarks. In the first one, we analyze the distinct aspects of demographic transition in Brazil. Secondly, we feature the case of Rio Grande do Sul, where this process is more advanced. The third section, in turn, focuses on Brazilian social mobility and its repercussions on demographic transition. At last, the effects of this phenomenon on rural areas are examined, notably on youth, which have a strategic role in taking advantage of demographic transition and, nevertheless, have a significant segment affected by social inertia.