Abstract
The purpose of this article is to develop an optimization model for determining transit tariffs for energy resources, ensuring maximum efficiency of energy cooperation between Russia and the countries of Central Asia. The informational basis of the study was the statistical values of the indicators in the context of the countries studied for 2010-2017: gross domestic product (GDP), exports, energy imports, CO2 emissions, the level of transit tariffs for oil and gas. In order to achieve the objectives set by the method of multidimensional factor and integral analysis, the effectiveness of export-import relations between the studied countries was evaluated. The regression analysis method determined the elasticity coefficients of the export-import potential of countries and the transit tariff, with their impact on the efficiency of energy trade. Using a non-linear method of the generalized decreasing gradient, a model has been developed for calculating the optimal levels of transit tariffs for oil and gas, at which maximum efficiency of energy cooperation in the framework of export-import operations between Russia and Central Asia is achieved. The developed model for calculating the optimization of transit tariffs for hydrocarbons is based on the mutual reduction of their level between countries and the principle of equivalence. Practical application of the obtained optimal values of transit tariffs will ensure the intensification of export-import operations with hydrocarbons between countries on mutually beneficial economic conditions. It will be the basis for the development of effective strategies for the development of dense energy cooperation in the future.
Highlights
A multitude of inter-governmental bilateral or multilateral agreements signed by Russia and the former Soviet countries in Central Asia focuses on mutual economic cooperation
The values of elasticity coefficients indicate that gross domestic product (GDP) is elastic concerning the volume of foreign trade in energy resources for Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan
The development of energy cooperation based on an increase in foreign trade in mineral fuels, mineral oils, and their distillation products by 1% will lead to an increase in the GDP of Kazakhstan by 2.93%, that of Russia by 1.47%, and that of Turkmenistan by 1.16% (Table 3)
Summary
A multitude of inter-governmental bilateral or multilateral agreements signed by Russia and the former Soviet countries in Central Asia focuses on mutual economic cooperation. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan (as the largest producers of traditional energy in Central Asia) are interested in maximizing their benefits from the export of energy resources, which has a positive impact on their foreign trade and balance of payments (Ananyeva, 2019; Bakdolotov et al, 2017; Smaliukienė & Monni, 2019) These objectives can only be achieved within the framework of compliance with mutually beneficial conditions of cooperation in the joint development and operation of oil and gas pipelines, coordinated energy pricing policy, the formation of cartel agreements on energy exports, and development and research of new hydrocarbon deposits in these countries (Dorian, 2006; Dudin et al, 2019). Based on preliminary estimates by the SKM Market Predictor, the expected efficiency because of the increased use of the network transfer capacity within the EAEU will be13%for the Russian Federation, 28%for the Republic of Kazakhstan, and 19% for the Kyrgyz Republic (Balyberdin, 2016)
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