Abstract
The paths of many migrants include multiple destinations and transit routes, yet this pattern is almost never reflected in empirical analyses. For example, 9 percent of recent immigrants to the United States arrived from a transit country as opposed to the country where they were born. Among those arriving from many high-income countries, the transit migration ratio exceeds 30 percent. To explain these patterns, this paper constructs a dynamic model of global migration that allows transit migration opportunities to impact the attractiveness of locations. After estimating the structural parameters of the model, the paper simulates various counterfactual scenarios to highlight the spillovers of transit migration paths.
Highlights
The paths of many migrants include multiple destinations and transit routes, yet this pattern is almost never reflected in empirical analyses
Despite their prevalence and potential economic significance, transitory migration patterns and the dynamic decision processes behind them are not explored in depth in the international migration literature
The additional cost intercepts, denoted as αs[2,0] in equation (6), for transit migrants are negative for both skill levels. This is consistent with the fact that immigrants from country i living in country j are much more likely to migrate to another country k when compared to the natives of j
Summary
The paths of many migrants include multiple destinations and transit routes, yet this pattern is almost never reflected in empirical analyses. The migration decisions and paths of many international migrants include multiple destinations and transit routes Many people leave their birth countries and live in different locations before settling permanently in a foreign country or returning home. Among the people who were living in Australia, Canada, or the United Kingdom just before their arrival in the United States, over 30% were born in a different country and would already be classified as international migrants Despite their prevalence and potential economic significance, transitory migration patterns and the dynamic decision processes behind them are not explored in depth in the international migration literature. Spain’s proximity to more attractive labor markets in other European countries, which are possibly less accessible via direct migration, is likely to enter into the decision processes and utility calculations of Moroccan migrants
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