Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions (TCRE) As A Reduced-form Climate Model

Abstract

This study examines the paradox that the path of realized global warming by a given year is linear in cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide even though the corresponding eventual equilibrium warming is only logarithmic in atmospheric concentration. It then provides parameters for this linear relationship using the high-emissions scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These estimates constitute a transparent reduced-form climate model that can be useful for analyzing the economic costs and benefits of alternative abatement scenarios.