Abstract
External and internal factors may cause a system’s parameter to vary with time before it stabilizes. This drift induces a regime shift when the parameter crosses a bifurcation. Here, we study the case of an infinite dimensional system: a time-delayed oscillator whose time delay varies at a small but non-negligible rate. Our research shows that due to this parameter drift, trajectories from a chaotic attractor tip to other states with a certain probability. This causes the appearance of the phenomenon of transient chaos. By using an ensemble approach, we find a gamma distribution of transient lifetimes, unlike in other non-delayed systems where normal distributions have been found to govern the process. Furthermore, we analyze how the parameter change rate influences the tipping probability, and we derive a scaling law relating the parameter value for which the tipping takes place and the lifetime of the transient chaos with the parameter change rate.
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