Transforming the Nicaraguan energy mix towards 100% renewable

Abstract

Nicaragua is an underdeveloped Central American country of 130, 373 km2 with a population of 6.2 million inhabitants, 90% electricity access and 672 MW of peak demand. Currently, the electricity mix is nearly 50% renewable but the entire energy system is highly dependent on fossil fuels and biomass. This work aims to show potential for a renewable transformation of the Nicaraguan energy system. With a substantial renewable energy potential (geothermal, wind, solar, etc.) and no proven reserves of oil, coal and gas, neither in Nicaragua nor in Central America, an Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) for the electric sector was developed. The potential renewable transformation of the entire electric sector would create positive technical and economic conditions to the penetration of electric mobility. The results of this work indicate that optimal integrated renewable expansion mix will require prioritize the development of geothermal (high capacity factor to meet the base load with the lowest cost), wind, hydro and biomass sources and energy-efficiency programs. Although the potential use of electrical vehicles brings positive environmental impacts, from consumers' perspective electric vehicles are not cost-effective with current oil prices and relative high prices of electric vehicles. Thus, it will be necessary national and regional public policies in order to trigger the energy mix transformation and the introduction of electric mobility. This seminal work is the base for a further detailed research and proposing a regional energy transition initiative to be extended for Central American countries with similar characteristics and interconnected by a regional network; gaining scale for regional electric mobility.