Transforming Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula

Abstract

Abstract : On 25 November 2003 President Bush announced the start of a worldwide review of American military overseas armed forces posture. President Bush's statement has an important impact on the people of the Republic of (south) Korea (ROK). Since the end of hostilities in 1953 Korea and the U.S. have forged a long lasting and unique alliance to deter North Korea. From the time the Armistice was signed in July 1953 to today the ROK has become an economic giant rising to the l2th largest economy in the world in 2003. In the last 50 years Korea has undergone dramatic social and political changes. The ROK military has developed from a poorly trained and led armed force in 1953 to a modernized and powerful military. The basic mission and footprint of U.S. forces has remained unchanged since the 1953 Armistice. What represented a prudent and responsive deterrent capability in 1953 may not be appropriate in 2004. The nature of the changing North Korean threat and capabilities of both the U.S. and ROK military may be a good starting point to re-examine our deterrence posture. The debate in both Korea and the United States is ongoing and very animated. On a daily basis the Korean and international press speculate on options that include complete U.S. withdrawal to a preemptive attack on North Korea. The South Koreans do not fear nuclear attack from North Korea. They do fear an uncertain future with a diminished U.S. presence and a powerful nuclear armed North Korea that would be able to blackmail a prosperous south. More importantly the reality of a diminished U.S. presence/commitment would trigger South Korea to initiate a politically untenable agenda of large increases in military spending and military conscription. Therein lies the delicate balance both the United States and Korea must maintain. This paper will examine both the political, cultural and military changes that have taken place on the Korean peninsula.