Abstract
Integrated assessment models (IAM) and resulting scenarios have become increasingly institutionalised and relevant in the science-policy interface of climate policy. Despite their analytical strengths to conceive low-carbon futures, their co-evolution with the transnational science-policy interface of climate politics has also led to a focus on a specific set of techno-economic futures that are typically based on a relatively narrow set of assumptions. This deviates attention from alternatives that are hardly studied by IAMs, but might be more desirable from a societal perspective. We argue that research-based models and scenarios should support rather than narrow down deliberations on possible and desirable futures and provide an impetus to enact socially desirable change. Accordingly, we propose three future directions regarding the development and use of IAMs: 1) incorporate a plurality of perspectives on plausibility and desirability through iterative participatory engagement and worldview-based scenario exploration, 2) seek collaboration with the arts and humanities to expand the range of imagined futures beyond the status quo and 3) make projected futures more tangible and experiential so that diverse societal actor groups can understand and genuinely engage with them. By deploying the indisputable analytical strengths of IAMs optimally within these suggestions, we believe they can facilitate broader societal debates about transformative pathways to low-carbon futures.
Highlights
As the ecological crises become increasingly manifest, imagining plausible and desirable futures and ways to get there is a key task of sustainability research [1]
We presented three main directions to open-up the Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) practice, focusing on iterative participatory engagement, collaboration with the arts and humanities and experiential scenarios
While we show that there exist small-scale examples for the propositions we put for ward, what is lacking is a broader commitment by modelling commu nities and an increased legitimacy for such approaches in science-policy interfaces, which are interrelated
Summary
As the ecological crises become increasingly manifest, imagining plausible and desirable futures and ways to get there is a key task of sustainability research [1]. IAMs have co-evolved with the climate policy agenda and adopted various roles towards policy-making [5] This co-evolution highlights that the proliferation of model-based scenarios by research communities is influenced by and dependent on policymakers who eventually use the scenarios to develop mitigation strategies [6,7,8]. Beyond a more comprehensive repre sentation of societal transformations in models and scenarios, we suggest a reconsideration of the use of IAMs concerning societal deliberations on plausible and desirable futures Since such deliberations are inherently value-laden and political, we argue that conforming to their identities of objective and value-neutral science may not be the most valuable role for science to play [21]. We propose a shift in how models and scenarios are developed and how potential users are integrated to make them even more helpful for supporting deliberations on plausible and desirable futures
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