Abstract
Did the novel planning arrangements in the National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) enable stakeholders to substantively influence adaptation planning? If so, does the observed influence have potential for more transformational adaptation? We inform these questions by reviewing and coding the first 50 NAPAs, prepared by the world’s poorest nations with support from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We then apply categorical statistics and qualitative comparative analysis to test for stakeholder influence on the planning process and outcomes. We find little evidence that the composition of stakeholder participation influenced climate vulnerability analysis or adaptation planning in the NAPAs. Although the NAPAs were designed to be participatory and country-driven, they were constrained by limited budgets, prescribed guidelines from the UNFCCC, and the challenges of cultivating effective stakeholder participation. Key aspects of NAPAs even worked against generating transformational adaptation. Chief amongst these, risk exposure and sensitivity were emphasized over adaptive capacity in assessing vulnerability, and cost- effectiveness and synergies with existing development and environmental policies were priorities for selecting adaptation actions. These barriers to effective stakeholder engagement and transformational adaptation are timely reminders for those countries currently in the process of preparing their National Adaptation Plans to the UNFCCC.
Highlights
The world’s poorest countries are least responsible for global greenhouse gas emissions and have the least capacity to adapt to climate change [1]
With qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) analysis, we explored whether breadth of stakeholders and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)’s facilitation as the implementing agency were conditions associated with prioritization criteria focused on equity and adaptive capacity
We found limited evidence that the National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) planning process contributed to influential participation and representation of vulnerable groups necessary for transformational adaptation
Summary
The world’s poorest countries are least responsible for global greenhouse gas emissions and have the least capacity to adapt to climate change [1]. The Work Programme supports Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in planning and implementing adaptation It provides technical support for preparing National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) through the Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG) and financing for NAPAs and urgent adaptation projects through the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF). NAPA processes and outcomes are gaining relevance over time as LDCs develop National Adaptation Plans and tap into expanding sources of international adaptation financing like the Green Climate Fund [5].Principles of global environmental justice undergirded the NAPAs, resulting in novel planning arrangements emphasizing equity and inclusion of vulnerable stakeholders in participatory processes at the sub-national scale [6,7]. This paper helps to fill this gap by analyzing the adaptation planning process in 50 LDCs
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