Transformation of the post-cold war order and the global and regional powers policy in the South Caucasus after the 2020 Karabakh war

Abstract

The end of the Cold War ushered in a Unipolar world characterized by the US hegemony. In 1990s and early 2000s the US was realizing the strategy of “liberal hegemony” with emphasis on democracy promotion in the former socialist camp. The NATO enlargement and the support to the EU extension were key pillars of this strategy. There was a perception among pundits and policymakers that the “liberal democracy” will spread all over the world, bringing a new era of peace and stability. However, the Unipolar moment was short lived. The global financial crisis of 2007-2008 marked the beginning of the transformation of the post-Сold War order. The reasons behind this transformation are numerous - the relative decline of the US, the rise of others, most notably China, and the launch of the new multilateral organizations such as BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The transformation of the post-cold war order brings back the notion of multipolar world and the “great power competition”. The emergence of the "multi-polar world order" will inevitably trigger regional instability and the rivalry for regional hegemony. The absence of the world hegemon or the "world policeman" means that the second-tier states will be more inclined to use coercion as the primary tool to push forward their national interests. The world is facing the unraveling of the global world order with very few clues on what the new emerging order may look like. One pattern is obvious - states are putting more emphasis on the coercion, force and hybrid warfare as a key element of their foreign policy. Meanwhile, the absence of global hegemon triggers the tough and often violent struggle for dominance among regional powers. The South Caucasus was an arena of overlapping interests of many actors - Russia, the US, the EU, Turkey, and Iran. While in 1990s and 2000s the geopolitical configuration of the region was based on the competition between Turkey - Azerbaijan - Georgia partnership supported by the US, and Russia - Armenia alliance, the situation has changed in recent years. Turkey’s quest for independent foreign policy and growing tensions between Turkey and the US have resulted in a establishment of competitive/cooperative relations between Russia and Turkey. Ankara and Moscow are still competitors but they are able to manage their contradictions. The 2020 Karabakh war was a harbinger of upcoming changes in the regional balance of power. Azerbaijan won the war receiving significant military support from Turkey, Armenia suffered significant losses, while Russia deployed its peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabakh. As South Caucasus faces the growing competition between external actors vying for influence, and as Russia - West relations were completely ruined after the February 2022, the region has become another arena for Russia - West competition. The US and the EU are interested to push Russian peacekeepers out from Nagorno Karabakh after the end of the initial five-year term, viewing this as a significant step in reducing Russian influence in the region. Meanwhile, Russia seeks to stabilize relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, meanwhile keeping its military presence in Nagorno Karabakh. Despite the growing tensions between Turkey and the US, Ankara still remains main tool for the US in its efforts to decrease Russian power in South Caucasus.