Abstract
The characteristic of a supervolatile “disaster economy” is given, in which the number of shocks caused by natural and man-made disasters is growing. The factors of creating such an economy at the global level are disclosed. The review of discussions about the future of the world (economy, finance) after the pandemic - 2020 is made. New longterm trends emerging in such an economy and the deep changes associated with them in the economic and financial structures of the world and the West are forecasted. These trends include: the collective desire for greater autonomy of households and, accordingly, changes in their demand (growth of stocks, reserves, decrease in demand for rental assets, more desire for personal property, for the acquisition of equipment and technologies that provide autonomy, development of offices at home and the transition to a different life model (to be the most at home – the least in the office and in the public space); the digitalization of households; the increasing individualization of demand for products and services; deagglomeration (living in suburbs or satellite cities); increased mobility; in creased demand for goods and services related to the protection of life and health. The global trends in the economic / financial behavior of countries are disclosed in detail: protectionism; government policy to keep “the economy on a respirator”; changes in economic ideology, in its “mainstream”; the inevitable emergence of the concept of “economic sacrifice”; growing volatility of the global economy and global finance. In particular, ahead: the development of the ideology of the “economy of fear”; demonstration of a new balance between collectivism and individualism; revaluation of the models of capitalism existing in different countries; ideological revolution in global finance. The possibilities of an unfavorable scenario in the global economy and a strong challenge that still need to be answered are shown - is development or destruction ahead?
Highlights
С одной стороны, продолжение карантина – падение экономики (у него есть своя «цена» в человеческих жизнях), гибель людей в результате обострения «обычных» хронических болезней, дефицит помощи им
New longterm trends emerging in such an economy and the deep changes associated with them in the economic and financial structures of the world and the West are forecasted
IMF Finance & Development, June 2020, vol 57, no 2, pp
Summary
Источник: Расчеты автора на основе базы данных EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, Brussels, Belgium // www.emdat.be Рост в последние десятилетия системно значимых катастроф и бедствий, затрагивающих сами основы человеческого существования или приносящих материальный ущерб до 10–. «Экономика катастроф» – это экономика, существующая в условиях повышенных рисков системно значимых катастроф, ограничивающих ресурсы, которыми она располагает, глубоко влияющих на ее структуру (спрос и предложение, производство, распределение и потребление, ресурсы и технологии), вызывающих необходимость создания долговременных резервов, которые в значительной мере покрывали бы ущерб от катастроф и обеспечивали бы жизнедеятельность общества в моменты катастроф. Никто не мог сказать, когда она закончится), необычность условий, в которые попала значительная часть населения (длительный карантин, «затворничество»), создают прецедент, бенчмарк для того, чтобы понять, куда «развернет» человечество в случае, если будут и дальше нарастать частота и размеры системно значащих катастроф. Проблемы мира будут те же, что и до пандемии, но выражены жестче, в более экстремальной форме [Susskind 2020, p. 27]
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