Transferability of biotic interactions: Temporal consistency of arctic plant-rodent relationships is poor.

Eeva M Soininen,Virve T Ravolainen,Nigel G Yoccoz,John‐Andre Henden,Rolf A Ims,Siw T Killengreen,Kari Anne Bråthen

doi:10.1002/ece3.4399

Eeva M Soininen, Virve T Ravolainen + Show 5 more

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https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4399

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Abstract

Variability in biotic interaction strength is an integral part of food web functioning. However, the consequences of the spatial and temporal variability of biotic interactions are poorly known, in particular for predicting species abundance and distribution. The amplitude of rodent population cycles (i.e., peak‐phase abundances) has been hypothesized to be determined by vegetation properties in tundra ecosystems. We assessed the spatial and temporal predictability of food and shelter plants effects on peak‐phase small rodent abundance during two consecutive rodent population peaks. Rodent abundance was related to both food and shelter biomass during the first peak, and spatial transferability was mostly good. Yet, the temporal transferability of our models to the next population peak was poorer. Plant–rodent interactions are thus temporally variable and likely more complex than simple one‐directional (bottom‐up) relationships or variably overruled by other biotic interactions and abiotic factors. We propose that parametrizing a more complete set of functional links within food webs across abiotic and biotic contexts would improve transferability of biotic interaction models. Such attempts are currently constrained by the lack of data with replicated estimates of key players in food webs. Enhanced collaboration between researchers whose main research interests lay in different parts of the food web could ameliorate this.

Highlights

Predictive modelling is increasingly common in ecology, and statistical models created in one context are often used to predict the state of the system in other contexts, such as other geographical areas or climate regimes (Sequeira, Bouchet, Yates, Mengersen, & Caley, 2018; Thuiller et al, 2013)
Predictive biodiversity models rarely account for spatiotemporal variation in biotic interaction strength, as both the knowledge of the relevant variability and the data necessary to quantify it are usually lacking (Thuiller et al, 2013; Wisz et al, 2013)
The tritrophic food web of the region is described in detail in Ims, Jepsen, Stien, and Yoccoz (2013), and summary statistics describing various abiotic and biotic factors are given in Supporting Information Appendix S1; Table S1

Summary

Introduction

Predictive modelling is increasingly common in ecology, and statistical models created in one context are often used to predict the state of the system in other contexts, such as other geographical areas or climate regimes (Sequeira, Bouchet, Yates, Mengersen, & Caley, 2018; Thuiller et al, 2013). Biotic interactions are important determinants of biodiversity distribution (Elith & Leathwick, 2009; Wisz et al, 2013) and their strength is related to the functioning and stability of ecosystems (Bartomeus et al, 2016; Gellner & McCann, 2016). Predictive biodiversity models rarely account for spatiotemporal variation in biotic interaction strength, as both the knowledge of the relevant variability and the data necessary to quantify it are usually lacking (Thuiller et al, 2013; Wisz et al, 2013)

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