Transferability of a predictive Robinia pseudacacia distribution model in northeast Slovenia

Abstract

The main goal of this study is to assess the transferability of a species distribution model (SDM) for Robinia pseudacacia (black locust) to two testing sites in the Prekmurje region in northeast Slovenia. The predictive performance of the SDM at the testing sites was measured by 1) visual evaluation, 2) confusion matrix, 3) true positive rate (TPR), 4) the maximum of the true skill statistics (TSS) over possible cutoffs, and 5) paired-sample ANOVA. We show that the model adequately predicted potential distribution of the species in the region, which ensures that extension of the prediction at this scale will be a reliable base for nature conservation decisions. This also serves as a positive example for within-region transfer and extension of SDMs.