Transfer learning in environmental data-driven models: A study of ozone forecast in the Alpine region

Abstract

Many environmental variables, in particular, related to air or water quality, are measured in a limited number of points and often for a limited time span. This forbids the development of accurate models for interesting locations with missing or insufficient data and poses the question of whether a model developed for another measurement site can be reliably applied. Such a question is particularly critical when the model is entirely data-driven, such as a neural network. In this context, the paper proposes a procedure to evaluate the expected performance of an existing neural network model applied to a new unmonitored station. This transferability assessment is exemplified by the problem of forecasting ozone concentrations in different environmental settings around the Alpine Arc. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network models are applied for predicting hourly concentrations in 20 stations of different types (urban, rural, and mountain). The analysis of the results allows us to determine the expected performance of such models in new cases and reduce the transferability uncertainty when the existing models can be partitioned into clusters. The LSTM models demonstrate the possibility of high accuracy in ozone forecasting at all sites. Given the significant impacts of this gas on human health and the environment, this can contribute to better decision-making and mitigation strategies for air pollution control.