Transfer learning for pavement performance prediction

Abstract

Accurate pavement performance prediction models are essential to ensure optimal allocation of resources in maintenance management. These models are developed using inventory and monitoring data regarding pavement structure, climate, traffic, and condition. However, numerous road agencies have limited pavement data. Due to the inexistence of historical data, data collection frequency, and/or quality issues, the amount of data available for the development of performance models is reduced. As a result, the resource allocati on process is significantly undermined. This paper proposes a transfer learning approach to develop pavement performance prediction models in limited data contexts. The proposed transfer learning approach is based on a boosting algorithm. In particular, a modified version of the popular TrAdaBoost learning algorithm was used. To test the proposed transfer learning approach, a case study was developed using data from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database and from the Portuguese road administration database. The results of this work show that it is possible to develop accurate performance prediction models in limited data contexts when a transfer learning approach is applied. All the models resulting from this approach outperformed baseline models, especially in what regards long-term forecasts. The results also showed that the transfer learning models perform consistently over different time frames, with minor performance losses from one-step to multi-step forecasts. The findings of this study should be of interest to road agencies facing limited data contexts and aiming to develop accurate prediction models that can improve their pavement management practice.