Transfer function models for forecasting maritime passenger traffic in Greece under an economic crisis environment

Abstract

ABSTRACT Maritime transportation constitutes a dynamic Greek economic sector. Greece accounted for 25% of the Maritime Passenger Traffic (MPT) in the European Union in 2007. However, due to the economic recession since 2009, maritime passenger transportation has been facing increasing fuel prices along with declining demand. In this paper, we develop transfer function models, including macroeconomic indicators, for forecasting the coastal and the Adriatic MPT in Greek ports. The majority of the MPT models include the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an explanatory variable, reflecting the financial impact on maritime flows. Although the employment and the economic crisis dummy are also used as explanatory variables, the unemployment and the oil price do not affect MPT. The coastal traffic models are generally more consistent when the seasonality trend is eliminated, while the international traffic models perform better when the inherent seasonality is considered. This first effort contributes toward filling the gap of MPT forecasting models for supporting policy-making on maritime transportation.