Transboundary cooperation in Arctic climate change governance under geopolitical tensions

Abstract

Political conflicts or geopolitical tensions can create uncertainty in addressing climate change and environmental management in the Arctic. Dissecting how actors interact with each other and form networks is important for understanding ecological and environmental management challenges during geopolitical tensions, as well as promoting better governance. We construct transboundary networks for Arctic climate change governance (ACCG) from 2013 to 2021 based on the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT). Further, we used network descriptive statistical analysis and Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TERGM) to explore the structure of ACCG networks and the key factors influencing cooperation formation. The findings suggest that the overall cooperation density of the ACCG is low, and the dominant position of core actors is continuously strengthening. Non-state actors are less likely to be seen as partners and their participation depends largely on cooperation with states. The results also show that actors with similar stances and problem exposure are more likely to cooperate, but those exposed to high latitudes often choose not to cooperate; first-comers are more likely to perceive as cooperating yet they are inclined to establish internal cooperation. Additionally, two geographically proximate actors are more likely to cooperate. This indicates that under geopolitical tensions, the ACCG faces challenges not only due to the limited capacity of non-state actors to perform transboundary functions but also because the cooperation mechanisms are influenced by regional political logic. Accordingly, we further suggest policy recommendations from developing binding international frameworks to guide transboundary cooperation, enhancing cooperation among non-state actors, and ensuring the representativeness and fairness of non-Arctic actors' participation. This research provides insights into transboundary environmental management under political tensions, while also offering new pathways for analysing large-scale environmental governance structures.