Abstract
The participants in the electricity market pay too much attention to their interests, which makes the transaction risk in the electricity market more and more serious. In the risk analysis process, the single fractal theory is mainly used to observe the characteristics of electricity price fluctuations, which ignores the seasonal characteristics of electricity price fluctuations, resulting in a sizeable average deviation of risk assessment results. Therefore, a new transaction risk assessment method based on multi-fractal theory is proposed. This paper analyzes the main links of electricity market transactions, defines the new electricity market transaction mode, and determines the source of transaction risks. Relying on the multi-fractal theory, this paper obtains the characteristics of electricity price fluctuation based on various influencing factors. It calculates the transaction risk value of the electricity market caused by electricity price fluctuation by combining the regression interval analysis method. The experimental results show that the average deviation of the risk assessment results calculated by the proposed method is 10.25 yuan (MW h)-1, which meets the risk assessment requirements. This method reflects the market risk and provides a basis for follow-up risk management.
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