Trajectories of Offending to Age 61

Abstract

Life-course research has benefited recently from the development and application of advanced statistical methods, most notably group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM). These methods have allowed life-course researchers to assess taxonomies of offending and identify distinct offender trajectories. Guided by this methodological framework, this chapter offers the most comprehensive trajectory analyses to date among the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) males from ages 10 to 61. Specifically, trajectory solutions are identified across a series of age ranges (e.g., ages 10–16; ages 10–24; ages 10–32; ages 10–40; ages 10–48; ages 10–56; and ages 10–61). Subsequent analyses focus on comparing the stability of trajectory solutions across age ranges and the ability of childhood risk factors to differentiate trajectory groups generally and among CSDD males who evince the most childhood risk specifically. Finally, the association between premature death and trajectory group membership is also explored.