Trajectories of change in childhood obesity prevalence across local authorities 2007/08-2015/16: a latent trajectory analysis.

Abstract

We investigated differing trajectories of childhood obesity prevalence amongst English local authorities (LAs). Data on prevalence of childhood obesity (BMI ≥ 95th centile) for Reception year and Year 6 for 150 LAs in England from 2006/07 to 2015/16 were obtained from the National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP). Latent class mixture modelling (LCCM) was used to identify classes of change in obesity prevalence. In Reception, most LAs showed little change across the period (Class 1; stable, moderate obesity prevalence;84%), with a smaller group with a high prevalence that fell thereafter (Class 2; high but falling obesity prevalence; 16%). In Year 6 we identified three classes: moderate obesity prevalence (Class 3; 43%); high and rising obesity prevalence (Class 2; 36%); and stable low obesity prevalence (Class 1; 21%). Greater LA deprivation and higher LA proportion of non-white ethnicity increased risk of being in Class 2 (Reception) or Class 2 or 3 (Year 6) compared with Class 1. The prevalence of childhood obesity in LAs in England follow a small number of differing trajectories that are influenced by LA deprivation and ethnic composition. LAs following a stable low obesity trajectory for Year 6 are targets for further investigation.