Trait-based climate vulnerability of native rodents in southwestern Mexico.

Arturo Ramírez-Bautista,John N Williams,Mark W Schwartz,James H Thorne

doi:10.1002/ece3.6323

Abstract

AimIncorporate species’ trait information together with climate projections for associated habitat to assess the potential vulnerability of rodent taxa to climate change.LocationOaxaca State, Mexico.MethodsWe used a trait‐based approach together with climate exposure models to evaluate the vulnerability of rodent species to projected climate conditions in the study region. Vulnerability was estimated based on three factors: (a) Level of climatic exposure that species are projected to experience across their current statewide range; (b) inherent species‐specific sensitivity to stochastic events; and (c) species’ capacity to cope with climate change effects. We defined species as inherently sensitive if they had any of the following: restricted geographic distribution in Mexico; narrow altitudinal range; low dispersal ability; or long generation length.ResultsVulnerability varied depending on the climate change scenario applied. Under the MPI general circulation model and current emissions trends, by 2099, all species evaluated were projected to have some level of threat (vulnerable for at least one factor), with 4 out of 55 species vulnerable for all three factors, 29 for two factors, and 22 for one factor. Six out of ten rodent species endemic to Oaxaca were vulnerable for two or more factors. We found that species with narrow and restricted‐range distributions combined with low adaptive capacity were projected to be particularly vulnerable.Main conclusionsBy including species‐specific trait information in climate exposure assessments, researchers can contextualize and enhance their understanding about how climate change is likely to affect individual taxa in an area of interest. As such, studies like this one provide more relevant threat assessment information than exposure analyses alone and serve as a starting point for considering how climatic changes interact with an array of other variables to affect native species across their range.

Highlights

Our study looks at species vulnerability along three axes: (a) climate sensitivity based on ecological attributes; (b) adaptive capacity based on biological attributes; and (c) climatic change across a species’ geographic range
| 5871 climate projections alone (Foden et al, 2013 for birds, amphibians, and corals; Dickinson et al, 2014 for amphibians and mammals; Böhm et al, 2016 for reptiles). This appears valid for rodent species in Oaxaca where, because they span a variety of physical and life history traits and occupy a range of niche strategies and habitat types, it is unlikely that climate alone will determine their long-term viability (Pacifici et al, 2015)
We found that while 33 species (60%) were projected to be highly exposed, only four (7%) scored as vulnerable in all three categories under the high-impact scenario

Summary

Introduction

Our study looks at species vulnerability along three axes: (a) climate sensitivity based on ecological attributes; (b) adaptive capacity based on biological attributes; and (c) climatic change across a species’ geographic range. We followed Foden et al (2013) to classify each species into one of four climate change vulnerability categories: highly vulnerable (HV); potential adapters (PA); potential persisters (PP); and high latent risk (HLR)—depending on the combination of its climate sensitivity (in any of the following: rarity; habitat suitability; altitudinal range), adaptive capacity (average weight or generation length), and climate exposure.

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Conclusion