Trailing World Health Assembly Resolution 73.1: Pathway to Quick and Accurate Determination of the Source of Outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China.

Abstract

For more than four years now, the objective of determining the source of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China and the route of transmission of the infection to the human population has not been achieved despite existing capacity in molecular epidemiology and World Health Assembly Resolution mandating that objective. This study seeks to ascertain the reasons for failure to achieve that objective and to propose feasible alternative strategies to attain that objective quickly and accurately. Exploratory research was adopted, applying the tools of input-output device, data extraction, management by objective, rational decision approach and the deductive model. Fitting the objective of determining the source of the outbreak of COVID-19 as expected output, the actions of key players in the pandemic response (fitted as processors) were evaluated for consistence or otherwise in transforming data/inputs to achieve the output/objective. The study found that the World Health Assembly (WHA) Resolution 73.1 (9 (6)) mandating the World Health Organization (WHO) to pursue the objective of determining the source of the outbreak of COVID-19 was not diligently and committedly implemented; that the WHO and China have deliberately evaded that objective; that previous and ongoing studies focusing on the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in other countries and similar themes are diversionary and unnecessary workload that depart from the core objective; and that adopting a five-point alternative strategy will ensure the attainment of the core objective within 14 days, including: (i) re-phrasing of the WHA mandate for specificity; (ii) subjecting all possible pathways of transmission to scrutiny; (iii) adopting “confirmed” genetic sequences of SARS-CoV-2 for subsequent use in molecular epidemiology; (iv) establishing a ‘red circle’ of 2 km radius from the Huanan wet market for top-priority epidemiologic investigation; (v) review of Resolution WHA73.1(9 (6)) at upcoming WHA to expressly prescribe unfettered right of access to the international study team and sanction for non-compliance. The study concludes that determining the source of the outbreak of COVI-19 in Wuhan, China is an important objective that should be accomplished within 14 days considering existing capacity in molecular epidemiology, if avoidable impediments are removed.