Abstract
Due to imbalanced supplies of medical and healthcare resources between the capital city and other areas, Bangkok attracts its non-residents to access hospitals in the city only for giving births. This causes overestimation of Bangkok’s fertility rate and affects results of population projection. Therefore, this paper aims to project real Bangkok population numbers by age group and sex to 2030 by eliminating the influence of Bangkok-born outsiders. It introduces a new fertility rate calculation based on data from National Statistical Office of Thailand. The results show that in 2010 the total fertility rate of Bangkok was merely 0.8. All components being fixed, the projection displays shifts in population age structure, the age group with highest numbers from 25-34 years old in 2010 to 40-44 years old in 2030. Percent aging population expands from 9.6 to 22.6 percent. Furthermore, proportion of population aged 0-14 shrinks from 12.8 percent to 9.6 percent, which means Bangkok in 2030 is expected to face a seriously low number of young populations in opposite to its large number of elderly.
Highlights
Demography holds a key to sustainable development
The results show that in 2010 the total fertility rate of Bangkok was merely 0.8
Since these occurrences are deeply linked with other issues, e.g. economy, sociological perspective, culture, history, environment, and natural resources; population analysis is inevitably essential for any public administration
Summary
Demography holds a key to sustainable development It studies size, composition and distribution of human population looking into causes and consequences of their changes (McFalls, 2007). Composition and distribution of human population looking into causes and consequences of their changes (McFalls, 2007) Since these occurrences are deeply linked with other issues, e.g. economy, sociological perspective, culture, history, environment, and natural resources; population analysis is inevitably essential for any public administration. Developers of any state certainly demand well-conducted population projections for efficient development planning, even though human population dynamic is to some extent hard to be noticed by publics (Cohen, 2005). Human population can be projected in various scales, e.g. global scale, state scale, and local scales. Local-scale projections are mostly available at statistics offices of each country
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