TRAFFIC GROWTH RATE ESTIMATION USING TRANSPORT DEMAND ELASTICITY METHOD: A CASE STUDY FOR NATIONAL HIGHWAY-63

Abstract

With the recent thrust on improving and developing highways for boosting National Economy, the importa nce of Traffic Demand Forecasting (TDF) has increased significantly as th e forecasted traffic volume contributes substantial ly in engineering design, economic and financial liabilities of highway impro vement projects. Therefore, estimation of traffic g rowth rates and the related issues concerned primarily to improve the rationali ty of traffic forecast is of prime importance. In the present Paper, the complete process of Traffic Growth Estimation by Transport D emand Elasticity Method even when available data is inaccurate or even missing, merits and demerits of various methods of obtaining traffic growth factors and critical issue s associated in the process have been addressed and demonstrated through a case stud y. It has been revealed that with the constraints o f availability of proper data and fluctuation of developing economy, the task of Traffic Growth Estimation could be quite subjective and approximate. Different approaches and necessary considerations for improvi ng the rationality of traffic growth rate have also been addressed in the paper.