Abstract
Successful management of any sea port depends primarily on the harmonisation of transport supply and demand, whereas their incompatibility leads to a number of problems. The port, i.e. its management, through its operation and part of port policy may affect the planning of the construction or modernization of its port facilities. In doing so, the specified planning requires forecasting and quantification of the needs for infrastructural services of specified port, i.e. assessment of traffic demand. Accordingly, the basic problem of research in this paper is forecasting of traffic demand for the port services by applying the appropriate forecasting methods. In order to find ways of solving concrete problems in the port operations the methods for traffic demand forecasting are set by applying the methodology and the presentation of the application of economic forecasting methods. The selected methods of demand forecasting for port services in demand are illustrated and tested on the example of the Croatian largest cargo port, the Port of Rijeka. KEY WORDS: planning, forecasting, traffic demand, commodity flows, port capacity
Highlights
One of the best ways for successful management of certain transport companies is traffic demand planning
The basic intention of this research is to contribute to the traffic demand forecast for port services using various methods of traffic demand forecasting on the concrete example of the Port of Rijeka as the results obtained by comparing each prediction
While forecasting, the port traffic planners have to deal with predictions that may affect the resizing of traffic, such as, for example, predictions regarding changes in the market to the state of which the port is part of, and transit countries, economic changes in the hinterland of the port, the change in movement of commodity flows, changes in technology, transport of certain goods
Summary
One of the best ways for successful management of certain transport companies is traffic demand planning. The same author in the paper “Development of the port system in the atmosphere of the new legal environment” (1998) takes into account the existing situation, the movement of goods on the European transport market, and comparing the activity of ports to a competitive port; the projection of future Rijeka port traffic is based on a linear trend [7] Besides these scientific papers it is necessary to excerpt the professional papers: according to the study “Port of Rijeka and Ploče – Economic and Technical Study” (1996) for the forecast of the total trade of the Port of Rijeka, the authors used the barometric method of forecasting [20]. The progress in the application of quantitative methods was created as a result of the rapid development of computers and software that enables analysis of large amounts of data, and compares different versions and provides the optimal solution
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