Traffic conflict analysis in continuous confluence area of cross-river bridge driven by vehicle trajectory data

Abstract

Objectives To conduct an in-depth study on the spatial distribution of traffic conflicts in the continuous merging areas of cross-river bridges and ensure public transportation safety. Methods First, we utilized drone aerial photography to collect videos of vehicle movements. Using the YOLOv7 object detection algorithm and the Strong SORT multi-object tracking algorithm, we extracted high-precision vehicle trajectory time-series data. Next, based on the motion characteristics of traffic entities, we proposed using Deceleration Rate (DR) to describe rear-end conflicts and Lane Change Speed (LCS) to describe lane-changing conflicts. Additionally, we employed the K-means clustering method to determine the threshold values for minor, moderate, and severe levels of rear-end and lane-changing conflicts. Finally, based on the obtained trajectory data, the values of traffic conflicts are calculated and their severity is classified. A heat map of the spatial distribution of vehicle conflicts in continuous merging zones is then created to study the spatial distribution patterns of traffic conflicts. Results The threshold values for minor, moderate, and severe levels of rear-end conflicts are determined to be 3.06 m/s2, 5.36 m/s2, and 8.04 m/s2, respectively. For lane-changing conflicts, the thresholds are 1.13 m/s, 2.07 m/s, and 3.45 m/s. The spatial distribution of traffic conflicts exhibits a “first increase, then decrease, and then increase again” trend. Conclusions The study identifies the critical areas of traffic conflicts in the continuous merging zones of cross-river bridges. The research results provide a novel approach for acquiring traffic data in these areas and offer a reliable quantitative method for assessing safety risks on these road segments. This provides a theoretical basis for proposing targeted traffic safety management strategies.